A Very Much Warranted Glance Back at June 2003 After the 30 Yr’s Two Day Plunge to 11806
Author: john bougearel
Friday January 25 2008
John Bougearel
www.successfultradingtips.com
The (-4.22) plunge from 12228 to 11806 in less than 2 trading days was a site to behold – even though it was much less surprising than the strength of the 2 day surge from 11917 to 12228.
That said, I want investors to note that the low at 11806 is quite similar to the initial 11802 low off the June 16th 2003 high set on Friday June 20th 2003, just three days before the Wednesday June 25th 2003 FOMC meeting. Well guess what, this Friday’s low of January 25 2008 low at 11806 is just three stinking days from the next FOMC meeting on Wednesday January 30th.
Flicker back in your memories to the days ahead of the June 25 2003 meeting. To jawbone long-term interest rates down, Greenspan old the markets there was a deflationary scare in May 2003. Treasuries screamed higher until the NY Empire survey on June 16 2003 showed a huge rebound in manufacturing activity. Treasuries plunged into the low at June 20 2003 low at 11802. Then, treasuries did a three day walk up into the June 25 2003 FOMC meeting, to Thursday’s June 19th bear close gap at “12026.†allowing the 30 yr to gain + 2.29 points going into the Fed announcement. Market participants got their final 25 bps rate cut that day, and following that rate cut, saw a two month rout to the downside that it likely has never seen before (except for the wild 1980’s perhaps).
So, what am I suggesting? I am suggesting a 3 day walkup into the next FOMC statement back to the high of the wide range down day of Thursday Jan 24 2008 at “12026.†PLEASE NOTE the significance of
12026 in 2003, because it is taking on extreme significance in January 2008. The day of the surprise 75 bps rate cut closed at 12025 on January 22 2008, and the high two days later on Jan 24 was 12026.
(The three day walkup I am suggesting is precisely the inverse of what has happened ahead of the last three FOMC meetings since the Fed began cutting rates on Sept 18 2007 – which I mentioned in yd’s report).
A three day walkup would also be consistent with the Japanese candlestick pattern called “Falling Three Methods†– which in short is a bear flag pattern after a huge wide range day down. Here is a picture of what a bearish Falling Three Methods pattern looks like. Note the small candle that formed a double bottom at the low of the first wide range down day (same as today). The market then proceeds to walk up the next two days to the high of the previous wide range down day, and then resolves bearishly to the downside. The (-2.20) point plunge in the 30 yr on Thursday Jan 24 constitutes as a wide range down day.
A three to four day walk up to its high at 12026 is expected to encourage another round of selling by market participants during next week’s FOMC meeting.
The (-2.20) point plunge in the 30 yr on Thursday Jan 24 constitutes as a wide range down day. A three to four day walk up to its high at 12026 is expected to encourage another round of selling by market participants during next week’s FOMC meeting.
About the Author:
Friday January 25 2008
John Bougearel
@ www.successfultradingtips.com
Article Source: ArticlesBase.com – A Very Much Warranted Glance Back at June 2003 After the 30 Yr’s Two Day Plunge to 11806
Is 28 yrs old too old to begin taking college classes to become a veterinarian?
I am 28 yrs old and want to start college to become a veterinarian. I’ve always liked taking care of animals but for financial/personal reasons was never able to go to college. Can you let me know what you think? Should I just discard that idea or should I go for it? Please save unnecessary(rude) comments for they won’t be helpful. Thank you for taking the time to reply.
It’s never too late, but be realistic about what it will take. There’s 4 years of college followed by 4 years of vet school, which is extremely hard to get into and requires a very high GPA and scores. Most people who go to college intending to be vets do not get into vet school because there are very few spaces. Then there’s internship. All of this means you will be able to work very little for the next 10 years, you will have the very high cost of vet school for which there is little financial aid and you will be working extremely hard and this will have to be your full priority to succeed.
If you can handle all that, go for it. Best of luck!
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